New analysis suggests that the UK could be headed for another terrible harvest, following the warmest UK spring ever and the driest spring for over 50 years left crops stressed and in poor condition relative to previous years.

The analysis from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), estimates that the production of the main arable crops, wheat, barley, oats and oilseed rape could once again be near all-time lows. This would follow the third worst harvest on record last year after the unprecedented extreme rainfall in winter 2023/2024.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit said: “Climate change is already having a devastating impact on UK farming and our collective food security, pushing up shopping bills and leaving many farmers at the end of their tether. Although it’s too early to tell what the true impact will be of this record-breaking dry spring, we know enough to conclude that it will have had a negative impact. All eyes are on the next few weeks’ weather.”

This comes just as reports suggest the sustainable farming budget could be cut at next week’s comprehensive spending review. This funding is vital to building resilience to climate impacts such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, by improving soil health, planting new hedgerows and trees that can shade livestock and boost pollinators and restoring peatlands to protect communities and infrastructure from flooding.

Commenting on the analysis, Martin Lines, chief executive of the Nature Friendly Farming Network said, “This year’s arable harvest is on a knife edge. Months of dry weather have left my crops stressed, with their yield potential now capped even if we get a good bit of rain. This is what farming in a changing climate looks like. In three years, we’ve had the hottest day ever, the wettest 18 months and now the warmest spring. “

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