Global climate predictions show temperatures are expected to continue at or near record levels in the next five years, increasing climate risks and impacts on societies, economies and sustainable development, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

WMO predicts that there is an 80 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will exceed 2024 as the warmest on record and a 86 per cent chance that at least one of next five years will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.

The long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5C, keeping to the Partis Agreement limit, but is hardly a cause for cheer. The 1.5C (and 2.0C) level specified in the Paris Agreement refers to long-term level of warming inferred from global temperatures, typically over 20 years. Temporary exceedances of such levels are expected to occur with increasing frequency as the underlying rise in global temperature approaches the level.

“We have just experienced the ten warmest years on record. Unfortunately, this WMO report provides no sign of respite over the coming years, and this means that there will be a growing negative impact on our economies, our daily lives, our ecosystems and our planet,” said WMO deputy secretary-general Ko Barrett.

This year’s UN climate change conference, COP30, will consider updated climate action plans known as Nationally Determined Contributions which are crucial for keeping the Paris Agreement goals alive.

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