Extreme heat, the spread of climate-sensitive diseases like malaria and cholera, and disruptions to hospitals and other healthcare could drive close to $21tr in economic losses.

A new World Resources Institute (WRI) report commissioned by the Rockefeller Foundation shows investing in climate services for health could yield high returns by reducing sickness and death. Even in worst-case, high-cost, low-benefit scenarios, every $1 is estimated to generate almost $4 in health benefits, with other scenarios showing returns as high as $68 per dollar invested.

Even in ‘developed’ areas, ‘urban heat island effects,’ where cities can be significantly warmer than surrounding areas, including London, Madrid and Prague, every $1 invested in urban heat wave warning systems could generate at least $11 in economic benefits, measured as projected decreases in labour productivity, heat-related illnesses and deaths. The estimated returns are even higher for cities in India, where every $1 invested could generate an average of $50 in health benefits.

Based on an analysis of 46 World Bank finance health projects, WRI’s study found that for low- and middle-income countries with a population of about 25 million people, investing in all seven types of activities costs governments about $18m per year, while each of the seven activities costs between $1.4m and $5.9m per year. Activities supporting planning, capacity-building, and community behaviour and awareness campaigns typically require the least investment, while building resilient health facilities and infrastructure require relatively more.

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