Geothermal energy could replace 42 per cent of EU coal and gas as advances in drilling and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) using techniques adapted from the oil and gas sector now unlock heat from much deeper, hotter rock layers.

For decades, depth has been the primary barrier to geothermal deployment as conventional plants rarely operated deeper than three kilometres. However, a new analysis from Ember reveals that newer deep-earth drilling might transform geothermal energy from a niche “volcanic” resource into a mainstream power source.

The study shows that geothermal could replace 42 per cent of the EU’s coal and gas-fired generation, providing a stable alternative to fossil fuels for less than €100/MWh that coal and gas electricity cost.

“Once restricted to a few geological hotspots like Iceland or Tuscany, modern geothermal is now cost-competitive with gas across much of the continent,” said Tatiana Mindekova, Ember policy advisor and author of the report. “As Europe seeks to slash emissions while meeting the energy demands of heavy industry and AI data centres, this untapped resource offers a clean, firm power supply that remains insulated from the price volatility of imported fossil fuels.”

If fully deployed, this identified capacity could generate roughly 301TWh of electricity annually. The largest potential in the EU is concentrated in Hungary, which leads the region with a 28GW potential, followed by Poland, Germany, and France.

Mindekova explains that this represents “a carbon-free resource that doesn’t rely on the weather and strengthens energy security” for regions traditionally dependent on fossil fuel imports.

The analysis warns that despite being a pioneer in the early testing of these methods, the EU is at risk of being left behind, hampered by lengthy permitting processes and the absence of a unified EU-level strategy. While the US and Canada are aggressively scaling up projects with targeted policy incentives.

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