The floating wind sector achieved several key milestones in 2024, including 9.8GW of new lease awards, up to 11.7GW of tender launches, and the awarding of subsidies for commercial-scale projects in France, the UK and South Korea.

Despite these positive developments, overall progress remains slower than initially expected. This is reflected in Westwood’s WindLogix projections for 2030, which have been repeatedly revised downwards in recent years, with total floating wind capacity now expected to reach just 4.5GW by the end of the decade.

Following on from its 2024 Floating Wind Survey, Westwood sought the industry view regarding floating wind, and how it may has changed over a year.

A major finding is that optimism has declined, especially among developers. Over the past year, Westwood has seen developers resetting their offshore wind ambitions and optimising portfolios to reflect evolving strategies. A focus on value over volume has likely played a role in this changing view.

Expectations for floating wind capacity growth have been scaled back compared to 2024 sentiments, especially within the 2030 timeframe. Most respondents now anticipate that global capacity will remain under 3GW by 2030. Longer-term sentiments to 2040 remain more optimistic, although expectations are now more evenly spread across the different growth scenarios of 3-6GW, 7-10GW and beyond 10GW by 2040 – a more conservative response compared to the 2024 survey.

On a regional basis, Europe and Asia Pacific (APAC) are expected to lead development to 2040, with the largest share of respondents anticipating 3-5GW of operational floating wind capacity in each of these regions by 2040.

Industry sentiment on specific leading markets has also shifted. The UK is still seen as the global leader, but France has also moved into the top three. An interesting caveat is that respondents’ locations have also shaped their views, with a more positive outlook typically being placed on markets in their region. Regardless, the top three markets ranked by respondents – the UK, France, and South Korea – are also the markets where floating wind subsidies were awarded in 2024.

Major barriers to floating offshore wind development can be categorised into financial and non-financial obstacles. High upfront costs and limited investor confidence are seen as key financial barriers, with 77 per cent and 61 per cent of respondents highlighting these options respectively. Meanwhile, port infrastructure limitations and lack of technology standardisation continue to be the leading non-financial obstacles to development.

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