EU gas demand is expected to fall 7 per cent by 2030, according to a new report Ember.

Ember’s analysis of EU Member States’ national plans shows that EU gas demand is set to fall from 326 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023 to 302 bcm in 2030, a 7 per cent drop. This extends a trend already in progress, with gas demand dropping 19 per cent between 2021 and 2023, from 404 bcm to 326 bcm.

This long-term trend of gas decline stands in contrast to recent proposals to increase LNG import capacity, which could rise by 54 per cent by 2030. Given the planned gas decline by that date this additional capacity would be a significant oversupply, with new investments risking becoming stranded assets in the near future.

National targets also show renewables continue to grow. As the share of electricity in the EU’s final energy demand rises, with the electrification rate expected to increase from 23 per cent today to 30 per cent in 2030, due to the expanding use of electric technologies such as heat pumps, Ember analysis reveals that Member States intend to double their total wind and solar capacity over the next five years, putting renewables on track to generate 66 per cent of all EU electricity by 2030.

---