After years of expansion, the EU solar boom of the 2020s might be over. With a 0.7 per cent contraction from 65.6GW installed in 2024, to 65.1GW installed in 2025, this year is the first since 2016 that solar capacity has declined.

But the 2022 EU Solar Strategy, in which the EU set a goal of 400 GW has reached its objective, with 406 GW installed across the EU.

The figures, from SolarPower Europe, leave the predictions of low growth in 2026 and 2027, with growth only returning in 2028 and 2029, and finally returning to 2025 solar installation levels in 2030 with around 67 GW annual installations, meaning the EU will fall short of its 750GW solar target for 2030.

Walburga Hemetsberger, CEO of SolarPower Europe said, “The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big. We hit our 2025 solar target, but now for the first time, our 2030 target is falling out of reach. This interruption in solar market growth comes at a pivotal moment when acceleration is essential. Solar is now delivering for Europe; 13 per cent of Europe’s electricity was solar powered in 2025. It's critical that policymakers now implement robust frameworks for electrification, system flexibility, and energy storage to ensure solar leads Europe’s energy transition for the rest of this decade."

The faltering market is attributed to a number of factors. An uncertain post-energy crisis environment has seen rooftop support schemes cut and a perceived softening of energy price pressure on households, drastically slowing the home solar market.

While the picture across segments is changing, the ranking across EU countries stays relatively stable. Germany and Spain maintained their leads as the EU’s largest solar markets, driven by utility-scale projects as rooftop incentives slowed. In a slight-shake up, France overtook Italy to install the third-largest solar capacity in 2025, propelled by strong commercial and utility-scale expansion, while Italy’s rooftop sector contracted sharply following the phase-out of support schemes.

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