The Montel European Electricity Market Outlook has predicted that Q4 2025 will be characterised by delays in offshore wind projects, increased occurrence of Dunkelflaute periods, gas storage supplies being stressed in case of harsh weather and/or further geopolitical events.

Some of this can be traced back to Q3 2025 which saw a failure in Germany’s offshore wind bid auction raising questions about future growth in offshore wind.

Perhaps of most note was the German offshore bid failure, and wind is a crucial part of many countries plans to decarbonise electricity grids, but lower capture prices and higher costs are threatening future expansion plans.

On August 1, the German offshore wind tender for two sites in the North Sea failed to attract any bidders. The failure to attract bidders for the two sites, which are to hold 2.5GW of total offshore wind capacity.

Much discussion was spurred by this failure, with many commentators stating that Germany needed to reform its EEG (renewable energy law) to more of a CfD (Contract for Difference) approach, giving more certainty to project developers.

But more generally, offshore wind seeing delays and rising costs, with the failure of the recent offshore wind tender in Germany merely underlining the fact that new offshore wind projects are becoming more difficult to develop than before.

Indeed, some observers have wondered if Europe could yet become a relative ‘safe haven’ for offshore wind developers if conditions in the US continue to be hostile toward new projects.

However, the last quarter also saw another record-high solar, highest wind for any Q3 on record, and coal use reduction in favour in gas. So, a mixed bag then.

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