More than 80 per cent of the world’s refugees come from countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, according to a report by the ECIU.

Correlation is not, of course, causation, and it is impossible to know exactly the reasons people move, but in 2024, nearly 123 million people were forcibly displaced, or one out of every 67 people living on the planet. That is more than double the number a decade earlier; more than treble that in 2004.

Currently, people who move mostly do so within their own country, and often to more urban areas or to neighbouring countries, but as the impact of climate change worsens, numbers of people displaced are likely to increase.

A 2026 UK national security assessment of the risks posed by global biodiversity loss warned: “cascading risks of ecosystem degradation are likely to include geopolitical instability, economic insecurity, conflict, migration and increased inter-state competition for resources.”

As such, climate change is a ‘threat-multiplier’, increasing the severity or frequency of other threats to livelihoods, health and life. That includes poverty, highly marginal agriculture, insecure food supplies, civil unrest and conflict.

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